XGID=-a----D-C-a-dE---d-cAA-Ab-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Money session, Jacoby Beaver
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O X X X O | | O X |
| O O | | O X |
| O | | O X |
| | | O X |
| | | X |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | O |
| X | | X O |
| X | | X O |
| O X | | X O O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 177 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube : 1
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 59.34% (G: 21.85% B: 0.87%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.66% (G: 9.32% B: 0.41%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.187, Double=+0.632
Cubeful Equities:
No Double: +0.437
Double/Take: +0.357 (-0.079)
Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.563)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20
2010年8月16日月曜日
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コメントの投稿 (Atom)
ロールアウトすると１００点のブランダー。
返信削除ムーブをヘルプすることによる期待値の上昇を狙ったわけではなく、純粋にダブルに見えた。
アンカーを取れる確率が高すぎるのでしょう。31(8/5* 6/5)->danceとかはパスですが、それも1.094とかなので大したことないようです。
XGID=-a----D-C-a-dE---d-cAA-Ab-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 59.16% (G: 21.51% B: 0.86%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.84% (G: 9.22% B: 0.39%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.33% (G: 21.41% B: 0.83%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.67% (G: 9.13% B: 0.38%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.183, Double=+0.628
Cubeful Equities:
No Double: +0.444
Double/Take: +0.344 (-0.100)
Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.556)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout Truncated at 11 moves using 4 ply.
665 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1341
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ｱ 0.010 (+0.434<E<+0.454)
Confidence Double: ｱ 0.012 (+0.332<E<+0.356)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 17 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21